SpaceX Faces First Earnings After $500B Wipeout

SpaceX reports its first results as a public company Tuesday after losing over $500 billion in market value.

SpaceX heads into its first earnings report as a public company after Tuesday's closing bell, less than two months after its June 12 debut. According to Stocktwits, the company has lost more than $500 billion in market value since its first trade, entering the report on four consecutive weekly declines with the stock more than 50% below its intraday peak. Despite the rout, Stocktwits notes SpaceX still carries a roughly $1.4 trillion valuation, and short sellers had amassed $8.3 billion in paper profits since the IPO as of Friday, per S3 Partners data cited by Stocktwits.

The surprise is how quickly euphoria has turned to doubt for a debut once celebrated as historic. MoffettNathanson analyst Julie Zhu told Bloomberg, as reported by Stocktwits, that SpaceX 'sort of has almost a bit of an identity crisis' spanning launch, satellite connectivity and AI, making it unusually hard to value. Yet Zhu still calls launch the 'crown jewel,' arguing scarce rocket capacity underpins everything from Starlink to orbital data centers. Stocktwits also reports rolling lockup expirations could add selling pressure just as retail sentiment on the platform slipped to neutral from bullish on a 350% surge in message volume.

Per Koyfin consensus figures cited by Stocktwits, the Street expects $6.82 billion in second-quarter revenue, $2.05 billion in EBITDA and an adjusted loss of $0.23 per share. Stocktwits reports MoffettNathanson expects a near-term beat driven by terrestrial AI, noting SpaceX's compute agreements with Google, Anthropic and Reflection AI carry pricing two to three times typical neocloud rates — helpful this quarter but raising what Zhu calls a 'question of sustainability.' Zhu does not expect the report itself to reset expectations, saying investors probably won't 'hear all that much tomorrow to help us reset those expectations.'

The stakes extend far beyond one print. Stocktwits reports SpaceX's Google compute deal reportedly generates $920 million monthly, the company merged with Musk's xAI in February, and it plans a $60 billion acquisition of AI-coding firm Cursor expected to close in the third quarter pending regulatory approval. Starship remains central to cutting launch costs and deploying next-generation Starlink satellites, with payload deliveries expected in the second half of 2026; its 13th test flight on July 24 ended with a hard booster splashdown. Over the weekend, Musk replied 'Few understand' to an X post claiming SpaceX could add revenue equal to Tesla's entire business within 12 to 24 months, per Stocktwits.

Beyond SpaceX, the earnings calendar gives investors other tests of whether guidance optimism is holding. Zacks, via the Eastern Progress, reports Ventas is slated to post second-quarter results on July 29 with consensus at $1.67 billion in revenue and 96 cents in normalized FFO per share, though its model does not predict a surprise. Simply Wall St reports Solventum beat Q2 expectations on both revenue and adjusted EPS and raised full-year guidance for organic sales growth and adjusted EPS — a reminder that, in a mixed market regime, execution and guidance are what separate winners from stocks caught in a narrative reset like SpaceX's.