Avis Erases Entire 600% Squeeze Rally as Fund Exits
By @sharedot · · 7 pages
- Stock Market
- Short Squeeze
- Avis Budget Group
- Hedge Funds
Avis shares fell back to pre-squeeze levels near $99 as a $650M settlement with Pentwater unwound its 600% rally.
The squeeze that vanished
According to a report by Bloomberg cited by Hedgeweek, the stock fell as much as 3.5% to $99.20 on Monday, returning to levels seen before the March rally that briefly pushed the share price above $700.
Marketscreener, citing MT Newswires, put the stock at $102.44 with a year-to-date decline of 19.76%. For a stock that was the envy of squeeze-watchers in the spring, the full round trip is a striking outcome.
How the frenzy started — and why it ended
The squeeze began after hedge fund Pentwater Capital Management disclosed an increase in its substantial Avis stake, triggering a buying frenzy as short sellers scrambled to cover. At the time, more than half of Avis's available shares were sold short, amplifying the rally, Hedgeweek reports.
The unwind came just as violently: Pentwater then disclosed the sale of 4.3 million shares, prompting the stock to surrender 70% of its gains in just two trading sessions.
Avis accused the hedge fund of contributing to the volatility, and Pentwater agreed to pay $650 million to settle litigation over short-swing profits.
Fundamentals did the rest
Beyond the squeeze mechanics, the continued decline reflects deteriorating fundamentals across the rental car industry, with inflation, elevated interest rates, weak international travel demand and disappointing earnings weighing on valuations, per Hedgeweek.
Marketscreener's data shows Avis reported Q2 revenue of $3.00 billion against a FactSet estimate of $3.10 billion, with EPS of $0.98 versus $1.92 expected, and Deutsche Bank trimmed its price target to $136 from $148 while keeping a Hold rating.
Traders who rode the squeeze up learned how fast speculative rallies unwind once buying pressure subsides.
Short interest shifts to Hertz
According to S3 Partners figures cited by Hedgeweek, short interest in Avis has fallen to 29% of its public float, substantially below its March peak, meaning bears are no longer as crowded a target.
The pressure has migrated: rival Hertz remains heavily targeted by bearish investors, with 81% of its float sold short. Vikram Rai of First New York, who traded Avis during the squeeze, described it as one of his most profitable trades of the year, though he no longer holds a position.
The squeeze playbook still works — elsewhere
The Avis reversal comes even as the squeeze playbook produces fresh winners.
Stocktwits reports that Jack in the Box posted its biggest one-day gain in over six years on Monday as more than 33% short interest, index-fund buying after its FTSE Russell inclusion and a $500 million refinancing pushed repayments to 2029 fueled a classic squeeze, with retail sentiment rated 'extremely bullish'.
The contrast underlines the lesson of Avis: squeeze rallies need a fundamental floor, and Avis's industry headwinds offered none.