The World Meteorological Organization's October 8 update says El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly, with a near-100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027 and the potential to become one of the strongest events since at least 1950. The forecast peak lands in December, with the pattern expected to hold into late winter. Thirteen national and international forecasting centres, from Washington and Tokyo to London and Pune, agree on the powerful event, supported by ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes shared through WMO's coordinated network.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, speaking at the Global Heat Forum in Bangkok, explained that El Niño does not create new heat — it releases heat already stored beneath the ocean's surface, pushing global temperatures higher. She noted the ocean now holds an unprecedented amount of heat available for release.

WMO's October–December outlook favours wetter conditions across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, coastal East Asia, the northern Arabian Peninsula, North America south of 45°N and southeastern South America, while drying the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean and northwestern South America. UNICEF said on October 6 that more than 347 million children are expected to face unusually wet or dry conditions through December, warning of displacement, malnutrition and disease. Streamline notes ICPAC puts the strongest rainfall probabilities over northeastern Kenya, central-southern Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia.

Xinhua reports the Met Office expects El Niño to raise the likelihood of wetter, windier, milder conditions in Britain in late autumn and early winter, with colder weather possible later in winter — a milder start could boost wind power, while a colder late winter could raise LNG demand. Britain's Government Office for Science said global surface temperature has risen about 0.25°C since the 2015/16 super El Niño, making it possible 2027 surpasses 2024 as the warmest year on record. WMO and UN agencies are mobilising through the WMO Coordination Mechanism, and seasonal outlooks stress these are probabilities — national services should guide local planning.