Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said Friday that the U.S. economy has "broadly" moved in the direction the central bank expected after its September meeting, when it raised rates for the first time since 2023.

Speaking at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, he refused to offer any hint about whether another hike could come as soon as October.

"I don't prejudge meetings," Warsh said, adding, "It's a new chapter at the Fed and we're not in that business anymore," referring to his abandonment of forward guidance.

Investors largely took the speech in stride, with CNBC reporting that S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edged higher afterward while Asian indexes and Treasury yields were mostly stable.

According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote that Warsh's comments, alongside other recent FOMC remarks, indicate the Fed is set to pause in October, with a second and final hike expected in December. CNBC also reported that traders see a 72.3% chance of no change at the Oct.

27-28 meeting, while most expect a 25 basis point hike in December.

Warsh described a "synchronous tightening in monetary policy in most places around the world" as central banks fight a "common challenge" of inflation, meaning "there's no free riders."

The surge in energy costs from the Iran war and the AI investment boom are pushing up prices and borrowing costs globally, even as public debt approaches 100% of world GDP.

The Fed chairman noted that global economies are showing resilience he says he would not have predicted five or six months ago, given geopolitics and hot spots around the world.

Warsh called the U.S. investment surge driven by artificial intelligence "probably the most important thing that's happening in the global economy on the upside," saying it will "fundamentally change the conduct of monetary policy."

He warned the path to higher productivity and wealth will be "very bumpy," with AI's effect on employment over the next 12 to 18 months still unknown.

He also noted trillion-dollar companies are borrowing heavily for data centers, with Vanguard expecting data center and related firms to raise $300 billion to $570 billion in debt this year, per NBC News.

The speech was Warsh's last public comment before Fed officials enter a blackout period Saturday ahead of the Oct.

The stakes are high: CNBC reported the September hike took rates to a range of 3.75% to 4%, while NBC News noted consumer price inflation jumped to 3.7%, with core readings surprising analysts at Bank of America as rising diesel costs filter into consumer prices.

The Business Times reported a Fed task force on AI and jobs will hold a public hearing in the San Francisco Bay Area on Nov. 16.