The Swedish Academy will announce the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature on Thursday, October 8, at 13:00 CEST, and the bookmakers' board has a distinctly feminine shape this year. The Guardian reports that Canadian poet Anne Carson and Chinese experimental writer Can Xue are joint favourites at 10/1 with Ladbrokes, with Haruki Murakami next at 14/1. Seoul Economic Daily notes Can Xue, often called "China's Kafka," has topped overseas betting sites this cycle, while the Asia Business Daily frames the race as a focus on women writers, pointing also to Cristina Rivera Garza and Jamaica Kincaid.

Both Korean outlets point to a striking substrate pattern: since Kazuo Ishiguro in 2017, laureates have alternated between men and women for nine consecutive years, from Olga Tokarczuk through Han Kang to last year's Krasznahorkai — which would favour a woman this time. Seoul Economic Daily also expects a non-European laureate given last year's Hungarian winner, spotlighting Mexico's Cristina Rivera Garza, the 2024 Pulitzer memoir winner for Liliana's Invincible Summer, and Jamaica Kincaid, recently honoured at Sweden's Gothenburg Book Fair. Korean readers disagree, though: the Asia Business Daily reports Atwood leads Aladin's reader poll at 39.76%.

The announcement lands at 12pm UK time per The Guardian, and history suggests humility for anyone betting a single name: 25yearslatersite.com notes Louise Glück won in 2020 at 25/1 and Annie Ernaux was only fifth favourite before her 2022 win, while The Guardian lists long shots from Knausgård to Salman Rushdie. Last year's recipient was Hungary's Krasznahorkai, with Han Kang, Jon Fosse, Annie Ernaux and Abdulrazak Gurnah among recent laureates. The vijesti.me report adds a final twist, saying the Swedish Academy is reportedly preparing a scenario no one expects.