Prediction market traders sharply raised the odds that Tesla and SpaceX merge in early 2027. According to CNBC, the chance of a merger happening before March jumped to 56% on Friday morning, up from 29% on Kalshi, with odds for an integration before April and May climbing to similar levels.

The market shift followed a Barclays note published Wednesday that outlined what a merger between the two Elon Musk-controlled companies could look like.

Crypto Briefing's term structure shows related contracts at 24.5% for December 31, 27% for February 1, 2027, 31.5% for March 1, 2027, 50% for July 1, 2027, and 62.5% for January 1, 2028.

According to CNBC, Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects a merger may be proposed as an AI vertical integration, pairing Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus with SpaceX's Grok and Macrohard, and could be announced before Tesla's annual general meeting, which must take place no later than Dec. 6, 2026.

Levy added that Terafab, the semiconductor project relying on Tesla, SpaceX and xAI, could be a key driver. 'Notably, while we suspect there would be some financial synergies, the true value would be in vertical integration,' Levy said, per CNBC.

What makes the move striking is that nothing formal has changed: Crypto Briefing notes the odds stem from market activity and sentiment rather than any announcement or filing, yet pricing on a contract verified by news outlets and the SEC's EDGAR database nearly doubled in a day.

The two companies have collaborated before — both are controlled by Musk — and this week Tesla showed off its long-delayed next-generation Roadster, which relies on SpaceX technology to make the vehicle hover, with a video recorded at SpaceX's test site in Texas.

On the EV maker's latest earnings call, Musk himself spoke of 'more and more overlap' between Tesla and SpaceX, per CNBC.

Observers should monitor formal disclosures from Tesla and SpaceX, since an SEC filing or official press release could significantly move pricing, and regulatory or antitrust reviews could shift perceived likelihood, Crypto Briefing reports.

A concrete catalyst may come soon: earlier Friday, Evercore ISI recommended buying SpaceX shares ahead of its next scheduled earnings release, set for early November, and boosted its 12-month price target on the stock by 20% to $275, according to CNBC.

Crypto Briefing also notes pricing suggests participants view the odds of an announcement by July 1, 2027, as having increased from 45% to 50%.