Interim results from this week's local government elections showed the African National Congress at nearly 31% with 76% of votes counted nationally, according to AP reporting carried by the Toronto Star.

Yahoo News, citing Reuters, put the ANC at 32% against 25% for the Democratic Alliance with 71% counted, while Reuters figures relayed by AOL showed a similar picture at an earlier stage of counting.

Either outcome would represent a drop of roughly 14 percentage points from the party's 2021 municipal result, which was already its worst in history.

The ANC itself acknowledged the message from voters, with spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu saying the party would reflect seriously and honestly on how to rebuild confidence between itself and the people of South Africa.

The result defied the expectation that many ANC supporters would simply stay home.

Louw Nel, a senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, said the turnout suggests ANC voters did not stay away as many expected, but instead showed up and voted for alternative parties — an outcome he described as the party's worst nightmare coming true.

Projections cited by Reuters put turnout around 52%, higher than in 2021, underscoring frustration over failing municipal services such as water and electricity.

The DA's Johannesburg mayoral candidate Helen Zille said it was still early days but expressed excitement about the party's prospects, while ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe countered that the trends were not final and that major townships had not yet been counted.

The damage is concentrated in the metropolitan areas that control service delivery. The DA led the ANC in Johannesburg, South Africa's biggest city, though the Toronto Star reported early results showed no party would win an outright majority there and coalitions would be needed to govern.

Reuters reported the DA declared early victory in Cape Town with about 60% of votes counted there, and that it was performing strongly in several major cities.

In KwaZulu-Natal, former president Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe party and the Inkatha Freedom Party were ahead of the ANC, while the MK Party was leading in the eThekwini municipality that includes Durban in its first-ever local election contest.

ActionSA, founded by former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba, was also performing strongly in early results there.

These municipal polls determine which parties control the cities and districts responsible for water, road maintenance and rubbish removal, so the outcome has a direct bearing on daily life.

The result extends a decline that began with the 2024 national election, when the ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time and had to form a unity government with the Democratic Alliance and smaller parties.

Analysts quoted by Reuters said a dramatic local loss could open the field to more competition in the 2029 national elections, when the pro-business DA hopes of becoming the country's biggest party.

Political analyst Sandile Mnguni told the AP that voters are no longer voting out of loyalty and are watching what elected leaders do in office, warning that any party that fails to perform will suffer the ANC's fate.

Because no party is expected to win outright majorities in most large metropolitan areas, coalition negotiations will determine who governs Johannesburg, Tshwane — home to the administrative capital Pretoria — and eThekwini.

Parties have two weeks from the declaration of results, expected on Sunday, to strike deals, according to Reuters.

Analysts said the best option for stability in Johannesburg would be an ANC-DA partnership mirroring their national unity arrangement, but the two are ideologically opposed on key issues such as racial redress.

DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis said the party would consider potential coalitions on a case-by-case basis, telling the AP it was premature to commit to any one party but that discussions were seriously under way.

The picture could still shift in the final counts: Reuters noted vote tallying was at an early stage when the first figures emerged, and ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe insisted township results could still lift the party's tally, with a projection by South Africa's Council for Scientific and Industrial Research suggesting the ANC could end at roughly the same percentage.

Final results are expected to be declared on Sunday, after which the two-week coalition negotiation window opens.

Whether the ANC can claw back control of Johannesburg and other metros, or must cede them through coalitions, will shape municipal service delivery and set the tone for the run-up to the 2029 national elections, in which the party's dominance is no longer assured.