Bloomberg Law reports that bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket have wagered nearly $6 million since February guessing when 76-year-old Justice Samuel Alito will step down, with the largest platforms jumping again this October despite his repeated assurances that he has no plans to retire.

More bets have been placed on who President Donald Trump would pick to replace him than on the timing itself.

On a crypto-based version of Polymarket unavailable in the US, one top holder has bet more than $86,000 on Alito remaining, while another stands to make over $60,000 on a long-shot bet that he retires by the end of the year.

The wagering surged even as Alito, now 76, told Bloomberg News directly that he has no plans to retire this term, even if Democrats retake the US Senate in the November 3 midterms.

Bettors revived the market this month as the publication of his book put him back in the headlines, treating a justice's personal decision like an earnings date.

Bloomberg Law notes the court now sits in the unusual position of being both the subject of prediction markets and the likely last word on how the fast-growing, multi-billion-dollar industry will be regulated, with petitions pending over whether states or federal regulators should oversee the exchanges.

According to Bloomberg Law, prediction markets exploded in popularity after a judge in Washington lifted a Commodity Futures Trading Commission ruling barring bets on the 2024 election, and they have grown further under a Trump administration that supports them and sued to block state regulation.

Donald Trump Jr. advises both Kalshi and Polymarket. Sports bets make up most of the volume, but political questions increasingly draw big money: Kalshi bettors have put down more than $200 million guessing the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee and over $100 million on control of the US House.

Nearly $2 million has been wagered on whether the justices will hear the New Jersey–Kalshi regulation clash.

Lawmakers have voiced concern about gambling on the court and whether justices and their staff have appropriate safeguards.

During congressional testimony in July, Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Elena Kagan said all court employees, from the justices down, are barred from using court information to gain financially — a prohibition that covers prediction markets.

Kalshi and Polymarket both said they are equipped to catch insider trading on the court; Kalshi fined and banned former Rep.

George Santos in August for allegedly manipulating bets about his State of the Union attendance, and prosecutors indicted a Google engineer after Polymarket flagged suspicious activity.

The betting frenzy lands on a court whose election rulings have already reshaped the midterm landscape.

CNN reports the conservative majority set the rules of the 2026 election through decisions on redistricting, campaign finance, noncitizen-voter checks and mail voting — including an April ruling that gutted the Voting Rights Act's protections and emergency rulings that boosted Republicans by nine seats, while Justice Elena Kagan issued a frank public critique of the court.

Bloomberg Law notes the justices may weigh the larger social implications of gamblers profiting off democratic and judicial processes as they consider whether states or the CFTC should regulate the exchanges.

Bloomberg Law reports the Supreme Court has given Kalshi until November 9 to respond to New Jersey's petition in Flaherty v.

KalshiEX, which asks whether sports bets on prediction markets are swaps falling under the CFTC; a coalition of gaming states, more than 140 Native American tribes and the NFL have urged the justices to leave regulation to the states.

Gaming lawyer Josh Kirschner of Holland & Knight expects the justices to ask the administration to weigh in, likely pushing any decision to next term at the earliest — a delay he says could help prediction markets become 'too big to fail.' Alito, for now, plans to stay on the bench.