The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its first official winter outlook on Thursday, and it is dominated by one player: a near-record strong El Niño event.

NOAA forecasters expect numerous strong storms to hit the West Coast and the southern half of the country, with much of the Lower 48 trending milder and wetter than average — though not necessarily less snowy.

The El Niño is likely to peak in intensity in December, then shape weather patterns across the country throughout the winter months.

National Weather Service director Ken Graham urged communities to plan ahead now, warning that too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides.

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific near the equator have reached 4 degrees Celsius above the 30-year average, according to the National Weather Service, driving global shifts in weather patterns.

According to Buffalo News reporting, the National Weather Service gives the event a more than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event and a 75% chance it could exceed previous events dating back to 1950.

Scientists have already linked the brewing event to devastating flooding, droughts, marine heat waves and tropical storms around the world.

El Niño typically points the jet stream — the west-to-east river of air that steers storms — at the southern tier of the United States. The result, per NOAA: more storms, and wetter and cooler weather, across southern portions of the country, while northern states turn drier and milder than average.

NOAA meteorologist Jon Gottschalck cautioned that some storms along the southern tier may turn northeast along the East Coast, potentially bringing heavy rain and snow to Mid-Atlantic and Northeast big cities depending on available cold air. "These storms could be very strong," Gottschalck said.

Warmer ocean waters and warmer air also give storms extra moisture to work with, raising the potential for unusually heavy rains and mountain snows along their paths.

Reliable seasonal computer model projections show California could see far above-average precipitation this winter, according to CNN.

Governor Gavin Newsom has already declared a state of emergency ahead of the season, citing the potential for significant inland flooding, high winds, heavy mountain snow and coastal flooding from waves riding on unusually high tides during major storms.

History offers both promise and warning: a super El Niño in 1997-98 set seasonal rainfall records across the Golden State but caused widespread flooding and mudslides.

Strong El Niños do not guarantee a wet California winter, but they tilt the odds in favor of one — and the events can be particularly damaging when they deliver.

Warmth is forecast over more than half of the Lower 48, and the drier-than-normal zone is confined to the northern tier — the same region expected to run milder than average.

Unusually warm and dry is not a combination that produces snow, and the Buffalo News reports Western New York may see a warm, dry start to winter with a higher chance of below-normal snowfall.

Precedent is sobering: the 2015-16 super El Niño brought only about 55 inches of snow to Buffalo against its roughly 93-inch average, and 1997-98 delivered just 75.6 inches with uncharacteristically balmy temperatures.

AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill estimates a 95% chance the Great Lakes will not freeze over this year, likely shutting down lake-effect snow until mid- to late January.

El Niño will not be the only game in town: the polar vortex will influence how much cold air and snow falls, especially along the northern tier, and NOAA warns that warmer-than-normal seasonal temperatures do not rule out dangerous winter storms.

Florida faces a heightened winter severe thunderstorm risk, per Columbia University climate scientist Michael Tippett, while much of the rest of the Gulf Coast sees less activity than normal.

A warming climate remains a background player — winter is the fastest-warming season for most of the US, and Climate Central's analysis shows annual snowfall has dropped in nearly two-thirds of the country since 1970.

Local emergency managers, including in Missouri's Warren County, are already running preparedness drills and urging residents to keep disaster kits in their vehicles.