The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September inflation report at 08:30 a.m. ET on October 14, the final data point used to calculate Social Security's 2027 cost-of-living adjustment for more than 71 million beneficiaries.

Projections cited by SSBCrack News put the 2027 COLA at approximately 3.5%, which would be the sixth-largest increase since 1993 and add about $73 per month to the average retired worker's check.

It would also extend a streak of six consecutive years in which beneficiaries received at least a 2.5% raise.

What makes this COLA unusual is its source. According to SSBCrack News, analysts describe a "Trump bump" — inflationary pressure tied to tariffs on imported goods affecting over 80 countries starting in late July 2025, plus actions on energy supply, driving prices higher.

Related Motley Fool coverage frames the 2027 COLA as likely among the largest in 35 years, thanks to inflationary pressures and what it calls a first-of-its-kind catalyst.

A bigger check comes with a darker balance sheet.

SSBCrack News reports that the Social Security Board of Trustees has warned of a long-term unfunded obligation projected at $29.3 trillion as of 2026, and that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund's reserves may be depleted by late 2032 — which could force across-the-board benefit cuts of around 22% if revenue does not match expenditures.

Motley Fool retirement expert Christy Bieber argues the COLA is the wrong number to watch, because it only preserves buying power against inflation rather than growing it.

The increase worth chasing, she writes, comes from delaying a claim: on a $2,000 primary insurance amount, claiming at 62 with a full retirement age of 67 cuts the check to $1,400, while waiting until 70 raises it 24% to $2,480 — a $1,080 monthly spread, or roughly 77% more.

Bieber also notes already-retired beneficiaries within 12 months of claiming may rescind and repay benefits, and those past FRA can suspend benefits to earn delayed retirement credits.