Thune: 'I Worry' GOP Could Lose Its Senate Majority

Senate Majority Leader John Thune candidly warned Republicans could lose the Senate this fall, citing high gas prices and Trump's slumping approval.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said in an interview with his local CBS affiliate, KELO-TV, that he is genuinely worried Republicans could lose their Senate majority in November. "I worry about that, for sure," Thune said. "I'm a realist, and I just think you — I don't ever try and sugarcoat things.

Thune's caution broke sharply with House Speaker Mike Johnson, who told reporters the same day, "You can write it or quote me... Republicans are going to defy history in 63 days, and we're going to hold this House majority." The gap between the two leaders' assessments — one bracing for headwinds, the other projecting defiance — is striking so close to Election Day, especially coming from the Senate leader whose chamber control is on the line.

Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. The Hill reports that Decision Desk HQ last week put Republican chances of keeping the majority at 52 percent versus 48 percent for Democrats — essentially a toss-up and the closest margin since June. The Hill also notes the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted red-held Iowa and Texas into its "toss-up" category last month, while a Daily Mail/JL Partners poll found 49 percent of voters said Trump was wrong to launch military action against Iran.

Thune told Fox News that Texas is a must-win as Democrat James Talarico battles GOP nominee Ken Paxton, saying all Republican allies and resources "need to be brought to bear on Texas." He also acknowledged the war with Iran's impact on gas prices via the Strait of Hormuz could weigh on voters. Per The Hill, he criticized Trump's plan to import 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef to lower prices, arguing it would undercut South Dakota ranchers who "produce the highest-quality beef in the world."

Thune has spent months cautioning colleagues that the president's party typically suffers in midterms, telling reporters in December that opposition voters are more motivated and pointing to a Democratic overperformance in a Tennessee special election as evidence. He praised GOP Senate candidates like Sen. Susan Collins in Maine and former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan, saying "we got the highest-quality candidates." With 62 days until the November 3 election and both Iowa and Texas now rated toss-ups, the Senate map gives both parties a live path to the majority.