Experts on 28-10 Rams Run Lean Under in SNF Showdown

SportsLine's Larry Hartstein and Stokastic's EMac frame Rams-Broncos as a defense-first Under game, with Nacua out and Stafford carrying the load.

The Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos meet Sunday Night Football on Sept. 27 at 8:20 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High, with Los Angeles installed as a 1-point favorite and a 44.5-point over/under, per CBS Sports. The line has dropped since opening at Rams -2.5, and CBS Sports notes the Under is a combined 4-0 for the two teams this season. The Rams have won each of the last five meetings, and Puka Nacua (hip) is inactive along with Tutu Atwell, according to CBS Sports.

For an anime-adjacent audience this is a different kind of serialized drama: two 1-1 teams with Super Bowl ambitions and a betting market moving toward them. CBS Sports reports both defenses are elite — Denver allowed the second-fewest yards per game in 2025 (278.2) and third-fewest points (18.3), while the Rams allowed the 10th-fewest points at 20.4 and added Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald, though Garrett (knee) is on injured reserve. The altitude factor at Mile High is another twist: Hartstein tells SportsLine it is difficult to play there early in the season, which favors LA's ground game.

The expert track record is the story's engine. SportsLine's Larry Hartstein went 50-37 ATS (57.5%) in 2025 and is 643-555 ATS all time, and he enters this game on a 28-10 run on his last 38 picks involving the Rams, returning $1,701 to $100 players, per SportsLine and CBS Sports. Hartstein is leaning Under 44 combined points, citing the defensive profiles. CBS Sports quotes him: "Blake Corum (6.0 yards per carry) and Kyren Williams (5.5 ypc) give LA two options better than anyone Denver has in its banged-up running back room."

For DFS players, Stokastic's Eric MacPherson says the Rams are on their third straight prime-time stage, with Aaron Donald's return from retirement buoying the defense while Garrett sits on IR. According to Stokastic, Matthew Stafford — the reigning NFL MVP per Stokastic — threw four touchdowns and 327 yards against the Giants, while Davante Adams hauled in eight catches for 195 yards and two scores on a hefty 198 air yards, nearly 60% of the team's total. Stokastic also reports Denver traded first- and third-round picks for Jaylen Waddle, who drew 10 targets in Week 2.

Both outlets point to a spread X-factor as the deciding lever. SportsLine says Hartstein has found a crucial X-factor making one side of the spread a must-back, revealed only to SportsLine members. Stokastic's Top-10 showdown board flags Terrance Ferguson — nine targets and a score last Monday — as having a salary roughly 50% too low on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and notes Blake Corum's gap with Kyren Williams is narrowing without a matching salary adjustment. Patrick Surtain II's deployment against Adams and Ferguson may decide who keeps pace in a projected low-scoring game.