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Gary Black: Waymo Outpacing Tesla On Driverless Rides
By @sharedot · · 7 pages
- Automotive
- Autonomous Driving
- Tesla
- Waymo
The Future Fund's Gary Black says Tesla beats delivery estimates but trails Waymo badly on scaling unsupervised autonomy across U.S. metros.
What happened
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, beating the company-compiled analyst consensus of 461,974 and marking its second consecutive major delivery beat, according to Stocktwits. Deliveries fell just 2% year-over-year despite lapping a record Q3 driven by the expiring $7,500 EV tax credit. Yet Future Fund managing partner Gary Black argued in a post on X that investors are looking past vehicle sales to the harder question: whether Tesla can close a widening autonomy gap with Alphabet's Waymo.
Why it is surprising
The reversal here is that Black — long a Tesla bull — calls Tesla's generalized Full Self-Driving technology "clearly superior" to competitors, but says the company's scale-up has "fallen far short of management's guidance." Tesla previously targeted unsupervised autonomy without safety drivers in eight to 10 metro areas by the end of 2025. Stocktwits reports it currently has unsupervised autonomy approved in only six metros: Austin, Dallas and Houston in Texas, plus Miami, Orlando and Tampa in Florida.
The evidence
Black highlights Waymo's lead: the Alphabet unit is authorized for fully driverless public rides in 15 U.S. metros — from Phoenix, the Bay Area and Los Angeles to Atlanta, Denver, Nashville and Las Vegas — and operates roughly 4,000-plus driverless vehicles nationwide, per Stocktwits. By comparison, Asianet Newsable reports Tesla had about 589 vehicles registered in Texas as fully autonomous as of Oct. 2, including 420 Model Ys and 169 Cybercabs. Tesla's guidance calls for unsupervised autonomous miles to compound at more than 10% per week.
The stakes
Autonomy is becoming the critical test for Tesla stock, Black says, even as delivery demand stabilizes. Markets reacted: Tesla shares closed nearly 5% higher on Friday while Alphabet's Class A shares gained nearly 2%, Stocktwits notes. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around Tesla still trended bullish, but TSLA is down 18% year-to-date while GOOGL is up 8%, against an S&P 500 ETF up 17% and QQQ up 24% over 12 months.
What comes next
The San Francisco Bay Area is next on deck for Tesla, while Las Vegas has been approved for a permit but is not yet live, Stocktwits reports. Meanwhile the public debate over driverless cars is intensifying elsewhere: EURweb reports Black Baptist pastors are lobbying against D.C.'s Autonomous Vehicle Deployment Authorization Amendment Act of 2026, introduced in May, with Rev. A. Michael Charles Durant warning automation could erode human interdependence, while Rev. Thomas Bowen argues AVs could remove drivers' ability to discriminate against passengers.
Sources
- stocktwits.com › Gary Black Flags Waymo Is Leaving TSLA Behind On Autonomy Even As Tesla Beats Delivery Estimates In Q3
- newsable.asianetnews.com › Gary Black Flags Waymo Is Leaving TSLA Behind On Autonomy Even As Tesla Beats Delivery Estimates In Q3
- eurweb.com › Black Baptist Pastors Take on Waymo: 'God Created Us to Be Interdependent'