Hurricane Isaias Now a Cat 2 Storm Barreling Into Gulf Coast

What happened: Isaias hits Category 2 strength

Isaias strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane on Thursday with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center, surpassing the 96 mph threshold for that category. A hurricane warning is in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay-Gulf County line in Florida, with a storm surge warning from the mouth of the Mississippi to the Suwannee River. NHC director Michael Brennan called it a dangerous hurricane and urged residents to be in their safe place by Friday as conditions rapidly deteriorate.

SourcesNPR

Why it's surprising: a record-late first hurricane

Isaias formed more than four months into the Atlantic hurricane season and came within one day of tying a 121-year-old record for the area's latest-forming first hurricane, a mark dating to 1905 when that year's first Atlantic hurricane formed on October 8. The season has been unusually quiet because a strong El Niño disrupts storm formation over the Atlantic, while Pacific activity has run above average.

SourcesNPR

Could still become a major hurricane

The Weather Channel reports that Isaias is benefiting from Gulf water temperatures well into the 80s and a moist air mass, favorable for intensification into Friday morning, and could briefly reach Category 3 status. However, increasing wind shear as the storm moves north is expected to weaken it before landfall, making a Category 1 or Category 2 landfall most likely. CNN's live coverage says the storm could peak at Category 3 and then weaken somewhat before striking the coast Friday evening. Forecasters stress that even a slight drop in wind speeds will do little to diminish the storm's impacts, and the system is expected to grow in size near landfall.

SourcesThe Weather Channel CNN

Evacuations and preparations underway

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey ordered non-residents to immediately evacuate Gulf Shores, Orange Beach and Dauphin Island, where traffic stalled on the highway out of Gulf Shores and double-red beach flags closed water access. Florida and Alabama declared states of emergency for dozens of counties, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said about 5,000 National Guard troops were expected to mobilize by Friday. At least four Florida school districts canceled classes, several counties ordered mandatory coastal evacuations, Pensacola's airport will close to commercial flights Friday morning, and CNN reports Amtrak service is disrupted in parts of Louisiana and Alabama. In Bayou La Batre, fishing crews secured their boats ahead of the storm.

SourcesNPR CNN ABC11 News

The stakes: surge, rain, outages and oil

Forecasters warn storm surge and high tide could reach 5 to 7 feet in parts of Alabama and Mississippi, with up to 15 inches of rain near the coast and tornadoes possible overnight Friday into Saturday from Alabama to the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia. The National Weather Service warned of possible long-duration power outages. The economic toll is already mounting: per the Marine Minerals Administration, about 63% of Gulf oil production was halted Thursday, taking nearly 1.3 million barrels a day off the market, and 121 of the Gulf's 371 manned oil platforms were evacuated, according to NPR. The region knows the risk well — Camille, Katrina and Michael all struck this stretch of coastline.

SourcesNPR The Weather Channel

What comes next: inland rain into the Southeast

Isaias is expected to quickly weaken after coming ashore but spread heavy rain and strong winds far inland through the weekend. The Weather Channel says rainfall could reach Memphis, Nashville, Atlanta, Charlotte and the Tennessee Valley, with flash flooding possible across the Southeast, Appalachians, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, and remnants reaching the Northeast by Sunday. WBTV reports the Carolinas face gusty winds up to 40 mph, up to 3 inches of rain and isolated tornado risk Saturday and Sunday. The storm may also disrupt Saturday's Georgia-Alabama football game, which President Donald Trump planned to attend, per NPR.

SourcesThe Weather Channel WBTV NPR

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