Experts Nearly Unanimous: 18 of 19 Pick Rams Over Commanders
By @sharedot · · 7 pages
- Sports
- NFL
- Rams
- Commanders
- Week 9 Picks
18 of 19 experts picked the Rams to beat the Commanders in Week 9, with Sports Illustrated's Mitch Goldich the lone Washington believer.
A near-unanimous consensus in Landover
The national picks are not buying a second straight Washington upset.
After the Commanders scored 27 straight points in last week's 27-10 win over Philadelphia, analysts across ESPN, nfl.com, Sports Illustrated and CBS Sports' Pete Prisco overwhelmingly backed Matthew Stafford's Los Angeles Rams over Jayden Daniels and the Commanders at Northwest Stadium.
By Athlon Sports' count, 18 of 19 straight-up picks took Los Angeles, and Athlon's own staff went 4-0 for the Rams against the spread. The nine analysts who gave a final score average out to a Rams win of 5.8 points, right on top of a line that sat between 4.5 and 5.5 points this week.
The lone dissenter and the boldest call
Sports Illustrated senior editor Mitch Goldich is the only national analyst the roundup found picking the Commanders to win outright, making his call with Myles Garrett cleared for his first game since Week 1.
That assignment matters: with Laremy Tunsil out, Brandon Coleman draws Garrett at left tackle, and coach Dan Quinn didn't downplay it. "It's hard to simulate any type of explosiveness like that," Quinn said Friday, according to Athlon Sports.
ESPN's Seth Walder issued the other contrarian call — a bold prediction that rookie Antonio Williams catches at least six passes for a career high, with Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown both ruled out for Sunday.
The numbers behind the picks
The statistical case for Los Angeles is broad.
ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Rams a 72.2% chance to win, per Athlon Sports, and ESPN's panel of Pamela Maldonado (24-17), Eric Moody (27-19) and Seth Walder (27-17) went 3-0 for Los Angeles, while nfl.com's five editors all picked the Rams, from Bobby Kownack's 24-20 to Jeremy Bergman's 30-24.
Bergman still expects resistance, writing that "this one will be closer than most expect." Washington does have one real credential: the Commanders have just three turnovers this season, tied for the fewest in the NFL, and Daniels is averaging 8.7 yards per carry.
Why the spread voters hedge
Against the number, the confidence frays. CBS Sports' panel split 4-3 for Los Angeles against the spread, with Prisco, Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg taking Washington — though Prisco still has the Rams winning 28-24 and expects Daniels to keep it close.
Bleacher Report's panel landed 4-3 the same way, and Gary Davenport pointed out that the Rams have covered a road spread that large only once this season, according to Athlon Sports.
Daniels' legs are the likeliest reason those votes cash: with Kyren Williams and the Rams ranking fourth in rush success rate, Washington needs its quarterback's legs to keep the ball away from Los Angeles and the game within a score.
A weekend of lopsided expert cards
The Rams-Commanders near-consensus is not the only lopsided expert card this week.
In a separate Athlon Sports roundup syndicated through Yardbarker, 17 of the 20 straight-up picks from ESPN, nfl.com, Sports Illustrated and CBS took the 6-2 Broncos to beat the 3-4 Panthers in Charlotte, with nfl.com's Gennaro Filice and SI's Mike Kadlick and Matt Verderame the Carolina dissenters.
For Washington, the stakes are momentum versus the entire national board: a third straight loss of public faith, or an outright upset Goldich alone saw coming. The Rams arrive on a two-game winning streak eyeing a third.