Raman Opens 11-Point Lead Over Bass in LA Mayor Poll

A new Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll shows Councilmember Nithya Raman leading Mayor Karen Bass 39% to 28%, a dramatic reversal from the June primary.

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times shows Councilmember Nithya Raman leading incumbent Mayor Karen Bass 39% to 28% among likely voters in the November 3 mayoral runoff, an 11-point margin. The online survey of 2,150 likely voters was conducted September 15–20 with a margin of error of about 3 percentage points. It is Raman's strongest showing yet; she trailed Bass in nearly every primary poll and finished second in the June 2 primary, 29% to Bass's 34%, with Spencer Pratt taking 26%.

The reversal is striking because Bass entered the runoff as the clear favorite after winning the June primary, and an August poll commissioned by an independent expenditure group supporting Bass had her ahead 41% to 35%, according to the Los Angeles Times. Even more unusual, 33% of likely voters remain undecided less than two weeks before mail-in ballots go out. Poll director Mark DiCamillo said it is 'extraordinarily unusual' to see this many undecided voters at this point in a race.

The huge undecided share traces largely to Spencer Pratt's elimination in the primary. Over 217,000 people voted for Pratt, and the poll found 63% of his primary voters have not chosen a runoff candidate. Among Pratt voters who have decided, 22% favor Bass versus 16% for Raman, per the Los Angeles Times, meaning his former supporters could be the pivotal bloc in deciding who becomes mayor.

The poll contains bleak numbers for the incumbent: 63% of likely voters view Bass unfavorably, with only 28% viewing her favorably and 9% with no opinion. Raman's image is far more divided, with 40% favorable, 39% unfavorable and 21% no opinion. The Los Angeles Times reports Bass has had negative favorability ratings since the 2025 Palisades fire, and 56% of likely voters rated her response to the disaster, which killed 12 people and destroyed more than 4,000 homes, as poor or very poor.

DiCamillo identified a massive generational divide as one of the poll's most significant findings. Raman, 45, dominates Bass, 72, among younger voters: 66% of likely voters ages 18 to 29 back Raman versus 4% for Bass, and she leads 64% to 12% among ages 30 to 39. Bass's only strong bloc is voters 65 and older, where she leads 41% to 21%. Geographically, the Los Angeles Times reports Raman leads nearly everywhere except South Los Angeles and the Harbor area, which Bass narrowly carries 37% to 34%.

Bass called the race tight, saying 'a poll is a snapshot in a period of time,' while Raman said her wrong-track message is resonating. Fox 11 reports the Bass campaign dismissed the survey as an 'outlier poll' that got the primary wrong, arguing online-only methodology undercounts seniors, working-class families and non-English speakers. Mail-in ballots go out starting October 1, and both candidates are scheduled for back-to-back conversations at the Jewish Los Angeles Mayoral Forum in West Los Angeles on September 29. Los Angeles has not had a one-term mayor since 2005, when Antonio Villaraigosa defeated James Hahn.