The World Meteorological Organization released its State of the Climate Update 2026 on the opening day of COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye.

The report puts global average surface temperature from January to September at about 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, and an El Niño that has intensified since August could lift the full-year figure further, making 2026 the hottest year on record.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the past 12 years were the warmest on record, with 2023 to 2026 ranking as the four hottest years.

"We are supercharging our weather," Saulo said, noting heat waves, tropical cyclones and rainstorms are intensifying faster than historical baselines prepared societies for.

The surprising twist is the strength of this El Niño.

Devdiscourse reports that El Niño strengthened from August after an early-year La Niña briefly cooled the planet, with fears of a record-strong event by December; China Daily reports the current event is forecast to remain into early 2027 and may reach nearly four times the WMO threshold for declaring such an event between November and January.

Because El Niño typically adds about 0.1°C to 0.2°C to annual global mean temperatures, and its greatest effect is generally felt the year after it develops, officials flagged the prospect of another record-breaking year in 2027.

The underlying evidence points one direction.

Ocean heat is heading for a 10th consecutive annual record, global mean sea level reached a new high, and Devdiscourse reports Earth's energy imbalance hit a record in 2025 with another high preliminarily indicated for 2026, while CO2 reached roughly 426.8 parts per million in 2025, 53% above preindustrial levels.

Devdiscourse also reports glaciers lost more than 400 billion tonnes of ice in 2025, Antarctic sea ice hit its third-lowest annual maximum, and global water storage in soils, rivers, groundwater and snow has been declining since 2014, with 42% of assessed land areas below-normal in 2025.

The stakes are measured in lives.

Hundreds of millions endured dangerous heat in 2026, including an estimated 146.5 million people in India during an April heat wave, while European heat waves, drought and wildfires caused more than 30,000 excess deaths in preliminary estimates; Devdiscourse separately reports a Himalayan glacier collapse and flash flooding in Nepal killed more than 1,300 people in August.

UN Climate Change chief Simon Stiell called the super El Niño "turbocharging climate impacts" and urged faster electrification and cleaner energy. Countries reporting multi-hazard early warning systems rose from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025, and a fuller global climate report is due in March 2027.