A study published in Nature Climate Change by researchers at the University of Victoria's Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) finds that the world is already experiencing warming levels equivalent to the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target.

By the end of 2025, all regions of the world had experienced 90 to 94 percent of the warming expected in a 1.5°C warmer world.

The analysis is the first to estimate warming on a regional scale, filling gaps in areas with sparse or nonexistent historical climate observations by combining in-region observations, global observations, and simulations for dozens of IPCC Sixth Assessment Report regions.

The surprising core of the finding is regional: the global average masks far higher warming on land. According to CHEK News, global land temperatures have already risen an average of 1.9°C above preindustrial levels, while northwestern North America has warmed by roughly 3°C.

Eos reports that Canada and large portions of Europe have already passed 2°C, that some very high-latitude regions exceed 2.5°C, and that the Russian Arctic has warmed 3.3°C.

Northern land areas warm fastest, while ocean-influenced regions such as southern South America, Southeast Asia and New Zealand lag behind — meaning many communities face far higher warming than the headline number suggests.

"Today's global mean climate is already statistically indistinguishable from a one and a half-degree warming world," said coauthor Francis Zwiers at a press conference, as quoted by Eos.

Peter Stott of the University of Exeter, who was not involved in the research, wrote in a commentary for Nature Climate Change that "we are effectively already living in a 1.5°C world," meaning impacts that policymakers in Paris hoped to avoid are now visible.

Zwiers told CHEK News that many climate risks once framed as future concerns "are already being experienced around the world."

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), the researchers project global average temperatures will reach 1.5°C in 2029 and 2°C in 2042 — as Zwiers noted at the press conference covered by Eos, "that's only 16 years from now."

He added it is still possible to limit warming to no more than 2°C, but that would require very rapid emissions reductions.

The findings land as leaders prepare for the UN climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, and as CHEK News reports researchers stress that infrastructure planning — buildings and bridges — should reflect regional warming already underway.

Coauthor Xuebin Zhang emphasized sustained climate monitoring to support adaptation decisions.