NWS Calls Space Coast Deluge a 1-in-1,000-Year Rain Event
By @sharedot · · 7 pages
- Climate
- Flooding
- Florida
- El Nino
- Extreme Weather
The NWS says the record flooding that drenched Florida's Space Coast on Nov. 1-2 was a 1-in-1,000-year rain event, with nearly 24 inches falling.
What Happened: Brevard County Drowns Under Training Storms
NewsCord reports the National Weather Service described the deluge as "a one in a 1,000-year event," meaning a 0.1% chance of rainfall of that magnitude in any given year.
North Grant-Valkaria saw 23.69 inches and east Malabar 23.44 inches, per NWS figures cited by NewsCord, while Palm Bay recorded 19.75 inches and Melbourne Beach 13.88 inches.
Why It Is Surprising: Six Months of Rain in 48 Hours
The magnitude is what makes this event remarkable: CubaHeadlines reports meteorologist Matt Devitt estimated roughly three trillion gallons of water fell on Florida in 48 hours — enough to fill Lake Okeechobee about three times over.
Per CubaHeadlines, preliminary Weather Prediction Center data put Malabar at up to 24.10 inches and Grant-Valkaria at 23.69 inches, nearly half a year's typical rainfall, arriving at the start of November, one of Florida's driest months. The Weather Channel adds that Nov.
2 was Melbourne's wettest day in 89 years, with 11.51 inches recorded, surpassing its 10.23-inch Hurricane Irma record from 2017. A flash flood emergency was declared for Palm Bay, West Melbourne and parts of Grant-Valkaria.
The Human and Civic Toll
The flooding killed one person and disrupted daily life far beyond flooded streets. NewsCord reports Palm Bay police confirmed the death of Joshua Bennett, 34, who was found in his truck in a flooded-out part of southeast Palm Bay after going missing during the rains.
Counties relocated Election Day polling locations, with Brevard elections officials citing "unprecedented circumstances" for the safety of workers and voters.
NewsCord also reports Brightline suspended train service between West Palm Beach and Orlando indefinitely because of high water on the rail corridor in Brevard County. CubaHeadlines reports Governor DeSantis declared a state of emergency in seven counties under Executive Order 26-227.
The Bigger Picture: Southwest and Mississippi Also Swamped
Florida was not alone. The Weather Channel reports parts of Arizona and Colorado took 5 to 7 inches of rain on Nov.
1 — more than double their average November precipitation in a single day — with fifteen river gauges setting all-time flood crest records across Arizona, southern Colorado and western New Mexico.
It also reports an estimated 16 to 24 inches of rain inundated parts of Pearl River County, Mississippi, on Halloween, flooding a home to waist depth.
All of this, Erdman argues, could be a prelude to a very wet winter from a soon-to-be record-strong "super" El Niño, whose signature is a wetter southern tier of the U.S.
What Comes Next: A Turbocharged El Niño Winter
Meteorologists expect the pattern to repeat through winter and spring.
The Weather Channel's winter outlook anticipates a wetter South, from California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast, driven by a turbocharged southern jet stream — welcome drought relief, but with more flooding rounds likely.
NewsCord reports South Florida water managers warned Super El Niño conditions could bring "substantial" Lake Okeechobee discharges to the St. Lucie River and Indian River Lagoon, with rainfall forecast to rise from 8 inches in November to 31 inches by March.
Army Corps modeling, per NewsCord, projects lake levels up to a worst-case 18.7 feet requiring major releases.