China Overtakes US in Latin America Influence, Poll Finds

The 2026 Latinobarometro survey shows China's influence viewed more positively than America's in Latin America for the first time since 1995.

The annual Latinobarometro survey, conducted in 17 Latin American countries, found for the first time since the poll began in 1995 that China's influence in the region is viewed more positively than that of the United States. According to the survey results reported by AFP via the Taipei Times and The Tico Times, 65% of respondents rated China's influence as positive, up from 48% six years ago, while 57% rated US influence positively, down from 60% in 2020. Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic were the only countries where US influence was rated more positively than China's.

The reversal is remarkable given the region's long history of US dominance and the fact that, as a country, the United States remains more popular than China: 63% of respondents held a favorable view of the US against 58% for China, per the poll cited by AFP. The influence gap opened sharply during President Donald Trump's second term, during which he has openly asserted a desire for hegemony over Latin America. The US favorability figure has fallen markedly from 73% in 2024, under then-President Joe Biden, to 63% now.

Latinobarometro director Marta Lagos told AFP that the report partly attributed the shift to Washington's 'almost complete absence' from the region in the two decades after the 2003 Iraq War, a period in which Latin America 'drew closer to other powers, to China, to the EU, to Japan.' Lagos said China won over populations by giving them access to cheaper imports, adding: 'The void that China fills is the void in people's pockets, more than anything else.' The 2026 survey was based on roughly 19,200 face-to-face interviews across 17 countries between May 7 and June 17, with a margin of error of 1 percent, according to The Tico Times.

The perception shift tracks a deep economic relationship. AgroLatam reports that merchandise trade between China and Latin America grew from just over $14 billion in 2000 to more than $500 billion in 2024, and that China has overtaken the United States as South America's largest trading partner, though the US retains stronger commercial positions in Mexico, Central America and much of the Caribbean. Brazil's agribusiness exports reached a record $169.2 billion in 2025, AgroLatam reports, with China buying $55.3 billion, or 32.7% of the total.

The finding lands just as Brazil goes to the polls on Sunday in a polarised presidential contest between 80-year-old incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, and far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, an ally of Donald Trump. The Guardian reports Lula has positioned himself as one of the last regional leaders willing to say no to Trump and has accused him of trying to interfere in the election. Fox News Digital, via 930 WFMD, reports the latest Datafolha poll puts Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 38%, with aggregators suggesting a razor-thin runoff, and notes Bolsonaro has proposed a US-Brazil free-trade agreement and cooperation on critical minerals.

A Lula victory would mean continuity in a foreign policy that maintains strong commercial ties with China while pursuing strategic autonomy from Washington, while a Bolsonaro win would bring closer US economic and security cooperation and a more confrontational posture toward Chinese influence, according to the Fox News Digital analysis carried by 930 WFMD. Either way, the Latinobarometro result suggests Washington's 'Donroe Doctrine' push, exemplified by January's overthrow of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, has not yet reversed sentiment: majorities in every country except Argentina approved of Maduro's capture, but only 35% believed it benefited Venezuela, per AFP.