The United States has formally warned Madagascar against deepening its military partnership with Russia.

Lieutenant General John Brennan, deputy commander of US Africa Command, told reporters at a briefing that similar partnerships with military-led governments in West Africa have failed to improve security.

He urged partners to understand the risks, saying countries are "free to partner with whom they wish" but should weigh what a Russian counter-terrorism model he called largely ineffective in the Sahel would mean for the island. Madagascar has not publicly responded.

Brennan warned explicitly against what he called the "Sahel model", pointing to Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, which cut Western ties and turned to Moscow to fight jihadist groups, yet have continued to suffer Islamist militant attacks.

According to StreamlineFeed, citing an Africa Center for Strategic Studies assessment, the Sahel recorded 9,928 fatalities linked to militant Islamist groups in the year to mid-2026, 42% of Africa's total.

Brennan said Russia and China are Africa's "new colonisers", and Channel Africa reports he argued Moscow's model aims to control natural resources and infringe on sovereignty rather than deliver stability.

Russia has expanded co-operation rapidly since Madagascar's army seized power in 2025, supplying weapons and military instructors, according to the BBC.

President Michaël Randrianirina visited Moscow in February, the first official visit to Russia by a Malagasy leader in nearly 50 years, and Madagascar and Russia signed defence, tourism and trade agreements at last month's Russia-Africa summit.

StreamlineFeed reports a timeline documented by RFI and RFE/RL: Africa Corps instructors arriving in December 2025, training of the 1st Airborne Battalion with a weapons transfer in January 2026, a Putin meeting in February and a joint economic zone announced in May.

Brennan said Madagascar's strategic position in the Indian Ocean makes it important to global trade, alongside neighbouring Mozambique.

He raised concerns about security in the Mozambique Channel, a vital shipping route, warning that Islamic State-linked militants in northern Mozambique and other hostile actors are developing greater maritime capabilities, citing recent piracy-related incidents.

StreamlineFeed notes a countervailing record from the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, which wrote in June that there had been no sustained piracy threat in the channel for over a decade — a distinction between recent incidents and a sustained threat.

Brennan also tied the stakes to Mozambique's multibillion-dollar ExxonMobil and Total LNG project, per StreamlineFeed's reporting.

Madagascar has not publicly responded to Brennan's comments, though President Randrianirina has recently reiterated his support for stronger ties between Russia and African countries, telling Putin in Moscow on 30 October that he wanted a partnership delivering concrete results, according to StreamlineFeed's account.

The measurable next steps are whether Madagascar proceeds with a stronger role in the Cutlass Express maritime exercise in 2027 — a preparation the US embassy describes — and whether the northern port project at Antsiranana advances on the terms either partner has offered.

Russia's push to replicate its Sahel security model elsewhere on the continent remains Washington's core concern.