One Win in the Bronx Ends the AL East Race Tuesday

The Rays, holding a six-game AL East lead, need just one win in a four-game Bronx series to clinch the division and the AL's No. 1 seed.

The Rays (95-60) and Yankees (89-66) open a four-game series Tuesday at Yankee Stadium with a separate-admission doubleheader, making up a May 23 rainout. Tampa Bay has led the division since reclaiming first place on June 27, and one victory in these four games eliminates the Yankees from the AL East race and clinches Tampa Bay's first division title since 2021, per mlb.com.

The surprise is how quickly the Yankees' last realistic path collapsed. New York entered the season trying to change the narrative after coming up short against the Blue Jays last year, and mlb.com notes the Yankees never trailed by enough to diminish this week's importance — until their series loss in Phoenix and the Rays' homestand produced the six-game gap. A four-game, three-day sweep is now the only way the Yankees stay alive, and even a sweep requires help over the weekend. According to CBS Sports, the Yankees' only path is sweeping these four games plus either a sweep of the Orioles while the Rays lose at least two to the Phillies, or two wins over Baltimore while Tampa Bay gets swept in Philadelphia.

The doubleheader lines up four high-end starters. Game 1 pits Carlos Rodón (6-3, 2.95) against Nick Martinez (15-4, 2.94), with Max Fried (5-4, 2.63) facing Drew Rasmussen (15-5, 2.72) in the nightcap, per CBS Sports. mlb.com reports Tampa Bay is 22-7 in Martinez's starts and has not lost one of Rasmussen's starts since July 9, going 11-0 since then. Rodón is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in three September starts, and Fried is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three September starts after twice landing on the injured list with a bone bruise in his pitching elbow. Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler follow in Games 3 and 4.

The winner of the AL East also takes the American League's No. 1 seed, a bye through the Wild Card Series and home-field advantage in the Division Series — and, per CBS Sports, the AL Central and AL West winners cannot take that top seed. The Yankees, meanwhile, are nearly locked into the top wild-card spot: they lead the Red Sox by six games in the loss column and hold the season-series tiebreaker, clinching home field in the Wild Card Series with their next win or a Boston loss. Both teams have already clinched playoff berths, so this series is about seeding, not survival — except for the Yankees' slim division math.

New York must make this stand without Aaron Judge, who is on the injured list with a right calf strain and, according to MLB Trade Rumors, is unlikely to be available for the Wild Card round. mlb.com reports the Yankees are 48-41 without Judge versus 41-25 with him, and CBS Sports says the captain is not expected back until at least Sunday, the final day of the regular season. Jazz Chisholm Jr., out since jamming his thumb Sept. 8, is expected back, possibly as soon as Tuesday. Ben Rice leads the club with 39 home runs, Cody Bellinger has hit .347 over the past two weeks, and Heliot Ramos has homered in consecutive games, per CBS Sports and mlb.com.

If the Rays win once in the Bronx, they can push Ian Seymour and Freddy Peralta back for extra rest and celebrate in a visiting clubhouse — Rays righty Griffin Jax told reporters, per MLB Trade Rumors, "I don't know if there's a better city to clinch in than New York." If the Yankees sweep, the race shifts to the weekend: Tampa Bay visits Philadelphia while New York hosts Baltimore. CBS Sports' prediction has the Yankees winning three of four, then losing the finale as Tampa Bay clinches the title anyway — a scenario that would leave New York heading to a likely Wild Card Series against Boston, with the winner facing the Rays in the ALDS.