The State of Wildfires 2025–2026 report, published November 11 in Earth System Science Data, shows that extreme fire-prone weather across Spain and Portugal in 2025 was around three times more likely because of human-caused climate change, and that the area burned was larger by roughly a factor of three.

August 2025 brought 14 megafires — defined as fires burning at least 100 square kilometres — to the Iberian Peninsula, killing 14 people and forcing more than 42,000 evacuations.

Spain recorded its highest burned area since 2002, while Portugal saw its largest single wildfire on record, and EFFIS data show 2025 was the worst year on record for area burned across the European Union.

Counterintuitively, the report identifies unusually wet conditions as a driver of the disaster. Scientists call the mechanism hydroclimatic rebound: a wet spell boosts vegetation growth, and subsequent extreme heat and drought then turn that growth into abundant dry fuel.

Dr Francesca Di Giuseppe of ECMWF said enhanced growth after wet conditions followed by extreme heat and drought exacerbates risk, setting the stage for severe fires in regions like Iberia.

This pathway contrasts with prolonged drying in carbon-rich regions such as Canada, Amazonia and the Congo Basin, and ECMWF's SPARKY fire modelling system combined weather, vegetation and ignition data to trace how the drivers built over time.

The team combined satellite observations of wildfires, vegetation and weather with multiple climate and fire models to attribute three major episodes of the 2025–26 season.

In Canada, climate change made burned area 10 times more likely and nine times larger — a third consecutive extreme season with fire emissions nearly triple the 2002–2024 average, around 70,000 people evacuated and direct costs of roughly $360 million.

In northwest Iberia, burned area was about three times larger and more likely.

In Chile, burned area was around twice as large and twice as likely; those January–February 2026 fires killed 23 people, displaced some 52,000 and reached Los Alerces National Park, a UNESCO World Heritage Site with trees thousands of years old.

The 2025–2026 global fire season actually recorded the lowest worldwide burned area and fire emissions since 2002, driven by low burning in African savannas — yet the metric conceals exceptionally severe regional extremes.

Dr Matthew Jones of UEA noted it was a low-ranking year for area burned globally but a catalogue of high-impact events with devastating local impacts and immense CO₂ emissions that further accelerate climate change.

Dr Douglas Kelley of UKCEH added that the strongest climate change signal appears in the most extreme fire events rather than average fire activity, meaning future seasons may not worsen uniformly but the most damaging years are likely to become more severe.

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), fires similar to those of northwest Iberia in 2025 are projected to burn around 78% more area by the end of the century, with some projections indicating increases of up to sevenfold, while fires like Europe's 2025 events could burn about one-third more area within the next 20 years.

The report stresses the future is not fixed: Dr Chantelle Burton of the Met Office said strong action to cut emissions can still avoid worse fires.

The findings were released during the COP31 conference in Antalya, where the independent Climate Action Tracker separately warned climate action has stalled for five years and nations' newest promises will not shift projected warming.