Polo Now 2nd-Strongest Eastern Pacific Storm on Record

Downgraded to Category 4, Hurricane Polo's central pressure ranks second only to Patricia, while El Niño hit record 3.05°C above average, per reports.

Hurricane Polo weakened from Category 5 to a strong Category 4 on Wednesday morning, with the U.S. National Hurricane Center reporting maximum sustained winds of 160 mph by Wednesday evening. The storm was located about 130 miles off Zihuatanejo, in Guerrero state, hurling hurricane-force winds outward up to 40 miles and tropical-storm-force winds some 115 miles from its center. After sitting nearly stationary for hours, Polo began crawling northwestward at just 6 mph, skirting the coast rather than striking it. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the storm was not expected to make a direct landfall but urged residents of Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán to stay vigilant.

The eye-catching downgrade obscures a stunning statistic: according to CBS News, Polo's central pressure — a key indicator of strength and destructiveness — made it the second-strongest hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific, behind only 2015's Hurricane Patricia. CBS News also reports its peak wind speeds tied 2009's Hurricane Rick as the third-strongest on record for the region. An NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the storm Tuesday and recorded sustained winds near 180 mph, tying two West Pacific super typhoons as the strongest storms on the planet so far this year. The National Hurricane Center called Polo's 110-mph, 24-hour intensification 'truly remarkable.'

The engine behind Polo's fury is now historic in its own right. According to the BBC, scientists monitoring ocean temperatures say the current El Niño is the strongest on record: daily sea surface temperatures in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific were 3.05°C above average on September 19, exceeding the previous record of 3.02°C set during the very strong El Niño of 2015. Warmer water lets storms draw more energy and reach higher wind speeds, while moist air and reduced wind shear further aid intensification. The BBC notes some longer-term El Niño measures have yet to peak, which is not expected until later this year.

The Weather Channel's tracker also shows the season's stark basin split: Accumulated Cyclone Energy — a metric combining storm strength and duration — has been historically quiet in the Atlantic but much more active than usual in the Eastern Pacific. El Niño has suppressed Atlantic activity while supercharging the Pacific, and another Eastern Pacific system could develop into Tropical Storm Rachel as soon as this weekend.

Polo's most serious threat is rain, not wind. Forecasters warn 3 to 6 inches could fall in coastal Guerrero and Michoacán through Thursday, with up to 8 inches locally, enough to cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides in steep terrain. Associated Press reporting describes Guerrero as rural, mountainous and repeatedly pummeled by hurricanes, with Mexico deploying thousands of military and Red Cross personnel and opening shelters. Farther east, Nolo could become a major hurricane before reaching Hawaii's Big Island as early as Friday; the National Weather Service's John Bravender warned of 20 to 30 inches of rain through Saturday, potentially causing catastrophic flooding on grounds already soaked since Hurricane Lala in August.

Forecasters expect Polo to fluctuate in intensity but remain a 'very powerful major hurricane' as it moves northwest parallel to the Mexican coast through the weekend, with its core staying offshore through Thursday morning. The longer-term track could bend toward the southern Baja Peninsula early next week, and The Weather Channel advises all interests along southwestern Mexico and Baja to monitor closely. Nolo is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane approaching Hawaii Friday or Saturday, and Kauai's electric cooperative is urging residents to prepare for prolonged outages.