Trump Says Iran War Won't End Until After Midterms

President Trump now says the seven-month Iran war and high oil prices will persist until after the November 3 midterm elections, a striking admission.

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he does not believe the war with Iran will end until after November's midterm elections, telling reporters: "I think the war's going to end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer." He added that oil prices "are going to be tumbling downward" right after the vote, though he conceded it could "take a little bit longer than the midterm." The remarks came as he traveled to Texas for the Republican Party's first-ever midterm election convention. According to CNBC, he claimed gasoline would fall below $2 per gallon — but not until after the November 3 vote.

The comments amount to an unusual acknowledgment that neither the war nor the elevated prices it has caused will be resolved soon, according to CNBC. Trump initially predicted the conflict, now in its seventh month, would last only a matter of weeks, and has claimed dozens of times that a peace deal was nearly at hand. He also told reporters further negotiations with Iran were possible "but it's not something we're looking at," suggesting he has shifted from seeking a diplomatic victory toward defeating Iran by destroying its military and starving its economy, as CNBC reports.

Fighting has intensified since a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire formally expired last month. Brent crude topped $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since July, jumping more than 3%, while US benchmark WTI reached about $96, according to PBS and the Associated Press. The US military said it attacked five oil tankers with ties to Iran; Tehran responded with attacks on two US Navy destroyers and eight tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, per BBC. The Iran-linked Houthis also attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, sparking fires.

Trump is facing falling approval ratings and pressure from within his Republican Party to end the war, whose knock-on effects on fuel and groceries have weighed on an election cycle dominated by inflation concerns, per BBC. Republicans hold a razor-thin House majority and a 53-47 Senate edge, and a sitting president's party historically loses seats in midterms. Notably, several vulnerable Republicans in tight races — including Senator Susan Collins of Maine and nominee John Sununu of New Hampshire — stayed home to campaign rather than attend the convention, PBS reports.

According to the Associated Press as published by KALB, the average US gasoline price rose 7 cents overnight to $4.22, more than a dollar above last year, while diesel hit an all-time high Friday and rose to $5.94 per gallon — costs that ripple into shipping and groceries. Jet fuel is so expensive that carriers have cut flights and raised fares. The AP also reports the strategic petroleum reserve fell below 300 million barrels in early August, down more than 100 million barrels since the start of 2026, and that rising fuel costs could push US interest rates higher.

Attention now turns to whether Trump's forecast holds: he says Iran will capitulate and oil will tumble immediately after the November 3 election, though fuel analyst Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy told CNBC he sees "no guarantees at all of that happening." Trump also alleged without proof that Iran is "desperate to try and affect the election" to install a "nice weak group" that would let it build a nuclear weapon; Tehran has repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons. Vice President JD Vance told reporters last week he would not set "artificial timelines" for the war's end, according to the AP.