The first global return-on-investment analysis of COVID-19 vaccines, published in PLOS Medicine by researchers from NYU, the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London, found that vaccine development, manufacturing and delivery worldwide cost $79.4 billion during the programme's first year (December 8, 2020 to December 8, 2021).

The gap between $6.43 trillion and $64.3 trillion reflects two different ways of valuing a prevented death, Tech Times explains.

The lower figure comes from a cost-effectiveness analysis using quality-adjusted life years, counting about 364 million QALYs gained plus $564 billion in averted productivity losses and $222 billion in avoided healthcare costs.

The higher figure uses a cost-benefit framework based on the Value of Statistical Life, under which preventing an estimated 14 to 20 million deaths accounted for roughly $63.5 trillion of the total.

Building on an underlying epidemiological model of what the pandemic would have looked like without vaccines, the study estimated that vaccination prevented about 1.50 billion infections and 51.5 million hospitalizations in the first year, along with the 14 to 20 million averted deaths.

Sensitivity analyses that varied key assumptions still produced strongly positive net benefits, with returns of $60.3 to $753 per dollar invested and credible intervals that did not overlap zero, according to the bioengineer.org and Tech Times accounts.

High-income countries gained the greatest absolute economic benefits because of early access, higher uptake, faster rollouts and older populations at highest risk of severe outcomes, while many low- and middle-income countries lacked widespread access until late 2021, after much of the population had already acquired natural immunity.

Tech Times reports that COVAX missed its 100 million-dose target for March 2021 until July and had delivered 200 million doses by mid-August against a 600 million projection, hampered by vaccine nationalism.

Still, low-income countries recorded the highest averted healthcare and productivity costs relative to their GDP per capita.

Unlike most vaccine cost-effectiveness studies, which count only the purchase price of doses, this analysis tallied upstream spending: Tech Times details $13.2 billion in public and nonprofit R&D funding, $42.7 billion in advance purchase agreements, $14.1 billion in corporate R&D and manufacturing, $389 million in additional manufacturing costs and $8.94 billion in delivery.

Lead author Hallie Benjamin said the benefits far outweighed the costs within just one year, while senior author Mark Jit said the unprecedented rapid investments 'paid off massively both in health and economic benefits.'

The authors argue the findings show vaccine development and equitable global distribution should be prioritized before and during global health crises.

The timing is pointed: Tech Times notes that in August 2025, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. canceled nearly $500 million in mRNA vaccine research contracts, a move former Surgeon General Jerome Adams called alarming and Cornell immunologist Cynthia Leifer warned could slow future pandemic response.

The authors caution the analysis covers only the first year and relies on prior vaccination-impact modeling, but conclude rapid vaccine development was an excellent investment.