Second Tanker Hit in Hormuz as Trump Weighs Iran Decision

A second tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz while Trump weighs whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran or pursue a deal.

UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, the second such incident reported on September 18. Earlier, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on social media that it struck a Togo-flagged tanker as it attempted what the IRGC called an "illegal passage" through the strait, accusing the US military of having "incited and deceived" the vessel into the crossing. The IRGC Navy said the tanker was brought to a halt.

The tanker strikes come as commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply. According to Iran International, citing Reuters ship-tracking data, only three commodity vessels transited the waterway on Wednesday, down from 12 a day earlier and well below the 10-day average of about 17. Iran has continued to restrict passage while the US military has tried to increase tanker traffic and restore oil flows, with Trump telling Axios that a US naval blockade on Iranian ports had prevented Iran from exporting its oil. US Central Command maintains that commercial traffic is still moving and that Iran does not control the strait, saying US forces have helped vessels carrying more than 900 million barrels of crude pass since early May.

In an interview published Thursday, Trump told Axios: "I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them [the Iranian regime] or do I not? It's a big decision. Anything could happen with me." Axios described the comments as coming at a critical juncture over whether Washington should restart massive attacks, which Trump had paused in August after Saudi Arabia and Qatar raised concerns about Iranian retaliation. According to the Times of India, citing Axios, US officials say Trump and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth have ordered US forces in the Middle East to remain at current levels through the end of the year to stay ready for a possible return to full-scale combat.

The escalation talk sits alongside signals of a possible off-ramp. Speaking Wednesday in North Carolina, Trump said, "hopefully we are toward the end of the war," adding that Iran is "very much wanting to make a deal," and said he had spoken with Tehran directly. He is expected to meet leaders from all six Gulf Cooperation Council states on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly next Tuesday to discuss the next phase and a postwar strategy that, per Axios, is not expected to be finalized until after the November midterms. China has intensified parallel diplomacy, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaking to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio a day after hosting Iran's Abbas Araghchi, who endorsed Xi Jinping's proposals for ending the conflict.

The conflict that began on February 28 has expanded into Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthis have escalated attacks on Saudi Arabia and advanced to control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the choke point linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Saudi Arabia shut its strategic East-West crude pipeline after a September 11 drone attack, and CNBC reports the kingdom arranged additional shipments through Oman's Sohar port via ship-to-ship transfers, easing fears of a prolonged supply gap. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that US officials met senior Houthi representatives at the US Embassy in Muscat, where the group said it would not attack American, Israeli or other commercial vessels except Saudi ships.

Trump has not said when he will decide whether to resume large-scale strikes, and his Tuesday meeting with the six Gulf leaders will bring him face to face with governments bearing the economic and security costs of a wider conflict. Oil markets eased Thursday after the Sohar workaround: CNBC reports Brent crude fell 1.5% to $104.28 a barrel and WTI dipped 1.1% to $101.30. Geopolitical Strategy chief strategist Michael Feller told CNBC that Iran may be willing to do a deal after the US midterms, but warned that continued reluctance to engage diplomatically could drag the conflict out until late 2028. Israel, for its part, signalled the campaign is not over, with Netanyahu saying there is "still work to complete."