Trump Cancels Rallies as Democrats Surge in House Forecasts
By @sharedot · · 8 pages
- Politics
- Midterm Elections
- Trump Rallies
- Cook Political Report
With four days to the midterms, Trump scrapped Iowa and Kansas rallies for tele-rallies as the Cook Report moved 12 House races toward Democrats.
What happened: rallies pulled, phones picked up
The cancellations came days before Tuesday's elections, when all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot. Vice President JD Vance also canceled a Friday news conference in St. Cloud, Minnesota, on the administration's "War on Fraud," with no reason given, CNBC reports.
Trump is still set to hold a rally Friday in Daytona Beach, Florida, where the Republican incumbent leads comfortably.
Why it's surprising: a shift in red states
The cancellations break Trump's pledge to spend the campaign's final days at rally after rally — he had already held 25 in-person rallies in October, short of a goal above 30.
The two canceled stops were in states where Republicans face unexpectedly strong challenges, and CNBC notes Trump had promised a blitz of 35 locations.
According to Straight Arrow, the RNC said its Kansas and Iowa Senate candidates are doing well enough not to need him, but polls show both states could be part of a blue wave that puts Republican control of Congress at risk.
The evidence: forecasters move toward Democrats
The Cook Political Report moved 12 more House races toward Democrats, predicting the party could win its largest House majority since 2009, CNN reports.
Two seats — Ohio's 9th and Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional Districts — shifted from "toss up" to "lean" Democratic, while Colorado's 5th, Pennsylvania's 1st and South Carolina's 1st moved from "lean" Republican to "toss up."
Seats including Florida's 7th and 9th, Indiana's 5th, North Carolina's 5th and 9th, New Jersey's 2nd and Washington's 5th all became more competitive. Meanwhile, RealClearPolling shows Democrats leading 51.4% to 43.2% on the generic ballot, per Al Jazeera.
Polls and approval paint the backdrop
Al Jazeera reports that a Marquette Law School poll put Trump's approval at 37% with 61% disapproval, and only 16% of Wisconsin respondents said they were better off financially than a year ago.
CNBC reports Trump's approval has dropped to historic lows amid frustration over high gasoline prices and the prolonged war with Iran, and that the NBC News average shows 52% of Americans preferring Democratic congressional control versus 43% for Republicans.
Marquette's Charles Franklin told Al Jazeera that Democrats are more enthusiastic and certain to vote, giving them an important edge reflecting Republican disappointment in national conditions.
The reporter exchange and the South Carolina push
When a Reuters reporter asked whether fatigue drove the Kansas cancellation, Trump rejected the suggestion — "I feel perfect" — before insulting the reporter with "You're sick to ask that question," according to The Guardian.
He told the reporter he did not feel he had to go to Kansas, where Senator Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton.
Trump had campaigned Thursday in Rock Hill, South Carolina, for Senator Darline Graham — sister of the late Lindsey Graham — telling supporters to "pretend that he was on the ballot."
The Guardian reports Republicans are anxious about Graham's contest against Democrat Annie Andrews in a state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator in nearly three decades.
What comes next before Tuesday
Trump's tele-rally schedule spans nearly 20 states through Election Day, with a Daytona Beach rally Friday and no events announced for Monday, the campaign's final day, according to CNBC.
Al Jazeera's US correspondent Alan Fisher noted that Alaska's Senate legal dispute over two candidates named Dan Sullivan could leave Senate control unresolved for days or even weeks after November 3 if that seat proves decisive.
Meanwhile, high-profile surrogates are fanning out: Al Jazeera reports Kamala Harris campaigned with Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Barack Obama criticized Trump's economy, while Harris urged students not to overlook down-ballot races.
Close Senate contests remain in Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Alaska.
Sources
- theguardian.com › Trump cancels rallies in Iowa and Kansas in shift of Republican strategy – live
- cnbc.com › Trump, Vance scrap planned appearances in final stretch of midterm campaign
- san.com › Trump cancels rallies in states where GOP faces tough challenges
- cnn.com › Midterms live updates: Cook Political Report moves 12 more House races toward Democrats | CNN Politics
- aljazeera.com › What polls say four days before US midterms as Trump cancels two rallies